Gmean following

TEST IN DIRECT STRATEGIES WINNERS

A lot of traderses believe that he/it is sufficient to unearth a formula winner, and to execute him to perfection to win money.

The test that follows, and that you can repeat proves the opposite at will:

He/it is not sufficient to bet juste: it is necessary to bet the good quantity in addition

To demonstrate it, we chose an example that should make salivate testeurses of systems: to play a system that wins 50% of the time, but that brings back the duplicate of his/her/its losses.

In summary, a game of battery or face, that end to the 100 emes stroke, in which the player bet a stationary percentage of sound to have (equity) .

Percentages have been fixed to 10%, 25%, 35% and 50% appropriate.

In the studied game, gains are 26 352 for a stake of 10%, 2 311 033 for 25%, 4 713 324 for 35% and 409 600 for 50%.

If you use alea.xls, you can throw back the test at will thanks to the key F9.

In the majority of cases the best results will be gotten with 25% and 35%.

THAT SAID THAT THE CHOICE OF THE STAKE NE doesn't HAVE an importance?

KEY ' F9 ' to LAUNCH ANOTHER CALCULATION				0,1	0,25	0,35	0,5

CAPITAL 100			STAKE 10%	STAKE 25%	STAKE 35%	STAKE 50%

pull		INIT CAPITAL	100	100	100	100	0
0,336528244	-1		90	75	65	50	1
0,573130221	2		108	113	111	100	1
0,923230049	2		130	169	188	200	0
0,253634711	-1		117	127	122	100	0
0,157828585	-1		105	95	79	50	0
0,245859554	-1		94	71	52	25	1
0,798004046	2		113	107	88	50	0
0,409058187	-1		102	80	57	25	1
0,57177877	2		122	120	97	50	1
0,650625676	2		147	180	165	100	0
0,006088888	-1		132	135	107	50	0
0,010292814	-1		119	101	70	25	0
0,297051951	-1		107	76	45	13	1
0,558542401	2		129	114	77	25	1
0,656250139	2		154	171	131	50	0
0,243946069	-1		139	128	85	25	0
0,005672167	-1		125	96	55	13	1
0,917676793	2		150	144	94	25	1
0,715112529	2		180	216	160	50	0
0,331471554	-1		162	162	104	25	1
0,593455124	2		194	244	176	50	1
0,534095719	2		233	365	300	100	1
0,565388121	2		280	548	510	200	1
0,888063905	2		336	822	867	400	1
0,886939859	2		403	1 233	1 473	800	1
0,847679299	2		483	1 849	2 505	1 600	0
0,269727076	-1		435	1 387	1 628	800	0
0,200940098	-1		392	1 040	1 058	400	1
0,644031855	2		470	1 560	1 799	800	0
0,248172251	-1		423	1 170	1 169	400	1
0,511005559	2		508	1 756	1 988	800	1
0,79691995	2		609	2 633	3 380	1 600	1
0,762152682	2		731	3 950	5 745	3 200	0
0,312817586	-1		658	2 962	3 734	1 600	0
0,392842072	-1		592	2 222	2 427	800	0
0,313316203	-1		533	1 666	1 578	400	0
0,289752502	-1		480	1 250	1 026	200	1
0,870651073	2		575	1 875	1 743	400	1
0,875515247	2		691	2 812	2 964	800	1
0,646564597	2		829	4 218	5 039	1 600	0
0,122230137	-1		746	3 164	3 275	800	1
0,633501672	2		895	4 745	5 568	1 600	1
0,831250942	2		1 074	7 118	9 465	3 200	1
0,926832046	2		1 289	10 677	16 091	6 400	1
0,628853589	2		1 546	16 015	27 354	12 800	0
0,18242892	-1		1 392	12 012	17 780	6 400	1
0,845754563	2		1 670	18 017	30 227	12 800	0
0,366892547	-1		1 503	13 513	19 647	6 400	0
0,463033561	-1		1 353	10 135	12 771	3 200	1
0,66392662	2		1 623	15 202	21 710	6 400	1
0,634662791	2		1 948	22 803	36 907	12 800	0
0,234600215	-1		1 753	17 102	23 990	6 400	0
0,220036361	-1		1 578	12 827	15 593	3 200	0
0,188424054	-1		1 420	9 620	10 136	1 600	1
0,723958898	2		1 704	14 430	17 231	3 200	0
0,211663064	-1		1 534	10 823	11 200	1 600	1
0,954278773	2		1 840	16 234	19 040	3 200	0
0,183152144	-1		1 656	12 175	12 376	1 600	1
0,948534854	2		1 988	18 263	21 039	3 200	1
0,77213058	2		2 385	27 395	35 766	6 400	0
0,305748447	-1		2 147	20 546	23 248	3 200	1
0,966828992	2		2 576	30 819	39 522	6 400	0
0,438852934	-1		2 318	23 114	25 689	3 200	0
0,18599021	-1		2 087	17 336	16 698	1 600	1
0,821181867	2		2 504	26 004	28 387	3 200	0
0,038445405	-1		2 254	19 503	18 451	1 600	1
0,783647883	2		2 704	29 254	31 367	3 200	0
0,417184359	-1		2 434	21 940	20 389	1 600	0
0,378916379	-1		2 190	16 455	13 253	800	1
0,549086473	2		2 629	24 683	22 529	1 600	1
0,789582007	2		3 154	37 025	38 300	3 200	1
0,696222395	2		3 785	55 537	65 110	6 400	1
0,811466882	2		4 542	83 305	110 687	12 800	1
0,627572355	2		5 450	124 958	188 168	25 600	1
0,599421179	2		6 541	187 437	319 886	51 200	0
0,126724965	-1		5 887	140 578	207 926	25 600	1
0,777205043	2		7 064	210 866	353 474	51 200	0
0,142051648	-1		6 357	158 150	229 758	25 600	0
0,300561957	-1		5 722	118 612	149 343	12 800	0
0,030305115	-1		5 150	88 959	97 073	6 400	1
0,83785921	2		6 179	133 439	165 024	12 800	1
0,826633232	2		7 415	200 158	280 541	25 600	1
0,576298479	2		8 898	300 237	476 919	51 200	0
0,038689543	-1		8 009	225 178	309 997	25 600	0
0,181326896	-1		7 208	168 883	201 498	12 800	0
0,02277705	-1		6 487	126 663	130 974	6 400	1
0,904734966	2		7 784	189 994	222 656	12 800	1
0,613425764	2		9 341	284 991	378 514	25 600	1
0,665756214	2		11 209	427 486	643 475	51 200	1
0,603108097	2		13 451	641 229	1 093 907	102 400	0
0,335947461	-1		12 106	480 922	711 039	51 200	1
0,551336921	2		14 527	721 383	1 208 767	102 400	1
0,891225815	2		17 433	1 082 075	2 054 904	204 800	1
0,940052225	2		20 919	1 623 112	3 493 337	409 600	0
0,464227188	-1		18 827	1 217 334	2 270 669	204 800	0
0,386537989	-1		16 945	913 001	1 475 935	102 400	0
0,400920342	-1		15 250	684 750	959 358	51 200	1
0,650009554	2		18 300	1 027 126	1 630 908	102 400	1
0,955156093	2		21 960	1 540 688	2 772 543	204 800	1
0,799320354	2		26 352	2 311 033	4 713 324	409 600	0

SUM	68						56
AVERAGE	0,68						0,56